Scenario Analysis & Planning

Constructing coherent alternative futures and testing decisions against them.

Four contrasting futures held apart from one present Two axes cross at a marked origin, dividing the field into four. Each quarter holds a dashed ring with a single accent marker inside it: four separate, internally consistent futures that differ from one another rather than varying around one expectation.

At a glance

Produces
A small set of contrasting, internally consistent futures - and how current plans behave in each of them.
Depends on
Drivers and critical uncertainties that genuinely differ, rather than variations on one expectation.
Fails when
Every scenario points to the same conclusion, or the set is quietly read as a forecast.

Scenario analysis develops a small number of internally consistent, genuinely contrasting descriptions of how the future could unfold. Scenarios are not forecasts and are not intended to be probable: they are instruments for stress-testing assumptions, strategies and plans against difference.

How we approach it

A good scenario set is uncomfortable. If all of the scenarios point to the same conclusion, the work has not been done.

  • Scenarios are built from drivers and critical uncertainties rather than from imagination alone, so that every scenario can be traced back to a defensible causal story.
  • We aim for a small set - usually three to five - that differ in ways that matter to the decision at hand, rather than a large set that differs decoratively.
  • Scenarios are used, not just produced. They are the input to wind-tunnelling, where existing plans are tested and their failure points identified.
  • We are explicit about the difference between a scenario that is plausible and one that is desirable, and we do not let preference leak into construction.